Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/21 AT 1800 UTC : 9.9S / 50.5E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 10.4S/49.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 11.4S/48.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 12.4S/47.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 13.4S/46.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 14.4S/46.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 15.5S/45.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- ; CI=5.0- THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INDUCED A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS NOW LOACATED SOUTHEAST OF DEAP CONVECTION (SEE SSMI AT 1448Z AND SSMIS AT 1642). IT HAS SLOWN DOWN, AS IT HAS STARTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEGINNING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ON A TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT BETWEEN MAYOTTE ISLAND AND THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT DAYS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL FOR THE EXTENTION OF WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.