Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 10.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.7S/48.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 12.6S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 13.6S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 14.6S/47.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/46.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN A STRONGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION (SEE TRMM AT 1836Z AND AMSUB AT 1912Z). IT HAS SLOWN DOWN AND CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT COME CLOSER TO THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. NEVERTHELESS, IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL.