Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 50.0E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 10.8S/49.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 11.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 12.5S/48.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 13.3S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.7S/45.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- AND CI=4.0- THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING IN A STRONGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INDOEX IMAGERY SHOWS A LLCC EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN AND IS EXEPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, BEYOND 48 HOURS , THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL.