Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 49.7E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 00 UTC: 11.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 11.9S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 14.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0- THE VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS WINDSHEARED (ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA) AND SINCE 0800UTC DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BACK OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, SO BONDO MAKES A BREAK IN ITS WEAKENING. IT SHOWS NOW IN THE VISBLE INDOEX CHANNEL A CURVED BAND PATTERN ABOUT 10 TENS. THE CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW CONFIRMS THAT THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING AND THE GOOD ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM HAS SLOWN DOWN AND SEEMS TO BEGIN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING IN THIS DIRECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO BE STRONGER DURING LAST NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM COULD DURING THE 23 AND THE 24 OF DECEMBER, UNDERGOI SOME CYCLES OF TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AND DEEPENING. NEVERTHELESS, DURING THE 25 OF DECEMBER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BACK IN A LESS WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM STILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL.