Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 50.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 06 UTC: 10.6S/50.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 10.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 11.3S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 11.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/47.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ AND CI=4.0- THANKS TO WEAKER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM ORAGNIZES AND CONVECTION HAS REBUILT AND MAINTAINED ABOVE THE CENTRE SINCE 0800Z. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 6 HOURS AND SHOULD STAY QUASISTAIONARY FOR 24 HOURS, BEFORE KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT SEEM THE STEERING FLOW AT MID-LEVEL IS TEMPORARILY THE STRONG WESTERLY EQUARTOWARD FLOW. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE STEERING FLOW WOULD BE THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL.