Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 50.3E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 080 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 12 UTC: 10.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 11.2S/49.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 12.1S/48.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 12.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 13.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 15.0S/46.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ CNVECTION MAINTAINS DESPITE FLUCTUATING PATTERN. ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOWS EXISTENCE OF WINDSHEAR - WEAK TO MODERATE. BONDO HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS AND SHOULD NOW TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY CYCLES OF WEAKENING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, BONDO COULD FIND A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK WINDSHEAR AND WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SSTS. REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MADE A LANDFALL.