Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 49.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 126 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/23 18 UTC: 11.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 12.6S/48.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.4S/46.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.7S/45.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 17.2S/43.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED, AND THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING. IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR, ACCELERATING.