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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC :
11.7S / 49.1E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR, THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL.
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