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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 12.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.1S/46.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 16.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0+
SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING BANDING EYE IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF 12 TENS.
BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING VERY SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.
UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.