Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 48.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 170 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 15.2S/45.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 18.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 20.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5 SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION GOES ON DESPITE IT IS VERY CLOSED TO MALAGASY COASTLINE. SINCE 2300UTC INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BONDO WITH A MORE REGULAR CONFIGURATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.