Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 0600 UTC : 12.7S / 48.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 14.2S/46.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 15.6S/45.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 17.2S/44.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 18.8S/43.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.7S/42.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.0S/42.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5+ THE SYSTEME HAS ACCELRATED SOUTHWESTWARDS, OVER A REGULAR TRACK, AND INTENSIFIED LIGHTLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MALAGASY COASTLINE. UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LIGHTLY, BUT NOT MUCH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH THE EXTENTION OF WINDS.