Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 1200 UTC : 13.2S / 47.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 045 SE: 045 SO: 045 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.1S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 15.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.3S/44.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 17.5S/44.0E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 18.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 20.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.0- THE SYSTEME KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS NEAR MALAGASY COASTS WITH VARIABLE SPEEDS. NWM PRODUCTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS TRACK, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED. SO, IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MAHAJENGA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT REMAINS VERY COMPACT, WITH CYCLONIC CONDITIONS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE EYEWALL WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN HIGH LEVEL, BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, SO THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAINS NEAR THE ACTUAL.