Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 47.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 045 SE: 045 SO: 045 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.6S/46.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.5S/46.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 16.4S/45.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 17.1S/44.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 21.4S/42.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- THE SYSTEM "BONDO" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. THE MAXIMUM WIND EXTENSION IS RATHER SMALL, CYCLONINC CONDITIONS ARE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE EYEWALL, WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. THE UPPER LAYER ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR "BONDO" BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LAND LIMIT THE LOWER LAYER INFLOW. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR, THE CYCLONE "BONDO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS NEAR MAHAJONGA.