Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 47.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 MOINS /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 120 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 045 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 15.4S/46.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.5S/46.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 17.7S/45.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 19.6S/44.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 24.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 ; CI=5.0- TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, THE SYSTEM "BONDO" IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJONGA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DISORANIZES THE LOWER LAYER INFLOW, THE LANDING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM "BONDO" RATHER QUICKLY ; NEVERTHELESS, HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIPHERY OF "BONDO".