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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/25 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 46.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 MOINS /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 120 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 16.1S/45.8E OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 18.2S/44.3E OVERLAND.
36H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 25.4S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2006/12/28 06 UTC: 26.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+
BONDO KEEPS ON TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTS AND SHOULD MAKE A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJUNGA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DISORANIZES THE LOWER LEVEL INFLOW, THE LANDING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM "BONDO" RATHER QUICKLY ; NEVERTHELESS, HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIPHERY OF "BONDO".
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, GRADUALLY ACCELERATING.