Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/3/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 46.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 120 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7S/45.1E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 18.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 21.6S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 25.7S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 26.9S/42.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+, CI=4.0+ BONDO SHOULD MAKE A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJUNGA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LAND INTERACTION DISORANIZES THE LOWER LEVEL INFLOW. HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIPHERY OF "BONDO". UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, GRADUALLY ACCELERATING. BONDO IS FORECASTED TO BE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.