Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/3/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONDO) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 1200 UTC : 19.9S / 43.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 22.8S/43.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 25.3S/43.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE MINMUM OF THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF EX-BONDO HAS CAME BACK OVER SEA NORTH OF MORONDAVE (IT IS A "NEW" LOW, GENERATED IN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF EX-BONDO; THE MAIN LOW WICH HAD MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED DURING LAST NIGHT OVER LAND). THE ASSOCIATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND NOT LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE ITS LOCATION OVER VERY WARM WATERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POOR DUE TO VERY POOR INFLOWS IN LOW LEVEL. NEVERTHELESS, IF THE SYSTEM GENERATES WEAK WINDS, IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED TO HEAVY RAINFALLS, EVEN FAR FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.