Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 0600 UTC : 7.7S / 61.1E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 08.4S/59.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 09.4S/56.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 10.1S/55.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/28 06 UTC: 11.0S/53.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/28 18 UTC: 11.8S/52.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/29 06 UTC: 12.6S/50.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS VERY IMPORTANT SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WICH IS STILL EXPOSED, LOCATED NORTHEAST OF CLOUDS WICH START TO ORGANIZE AS WIDE CURVED BANDS. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.