Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 1200 UTC : 8.3S / 60.6E (EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 08.8S/59.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 09.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 10.5S/55.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 11.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/29 00 UTC: 11.8S/52.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/29 12 UTC: 12.5S/51.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED AND VERY DEPENDANT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE, LOCALISED SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, FAR FROM IT. CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVEL (GOOD MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOW), BUT UNFAVORABLE IN HIGH LEVEL (UNIDIRECTIONAL EAST WINDS). SO, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN ORGANISATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLCC, BEFORE THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.