Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 59.3E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 09.6S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 10.4S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/28 06 UTC: 11.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/28 18 UTC: 12.0S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/29 06 UTC: 12.5S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/29 18 UTC: 13.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OVER THE VERY LAST HOURS. CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS (GOOD MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS), BUT UNFAVORABLE IN HIGH LEVELS (UNIDIRECTIONAL EAST WINDS). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED (QUIKSCAT 26/1423Z), VERY CIRCULAR, BUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN ORGANISATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLCC, IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.