Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/4/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.4S / 57.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 09.6S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 10.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 11.0S/53.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/29 00 UTC: 11.7S/52.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/29 12 UTC: 12.4S/52.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/30 00 UTC: 13.0S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CCC PATTERN. CENTRE CAN NOT BE DETECTED THANKS TO EIR NOAA IMAGERY N17 (26/1902Z) AND N18 (26/2147Z), AS IT IS LOCATED UNDER THE CENTRAL COLD COVER. ONLY FEW BANDS APPEAR. HOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSRE 26/2114Z) ALLOWS TO GUESS CENTRE POSITION, THAT REMAINS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS (GOOD MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS), BUT UNFAVORABLE IN HIGH LEVELS (UNIDIRECTIONAL EASTERLY WINDS). THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AND INTENSIFIES SLOWLY.