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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/4/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2006/12/27 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0S / 57.1E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 110 SO: 110 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 09.6S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/12/28 06 UTC: 10.4S/54.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/28 18 UTC: 11.0S/53.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/29 06 UTC: 11.7S/52.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/29 18 UTC: 12.4S/51.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/30 06 UTC: 13.1S/51.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER INTENSE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALONG ITS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.