Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/4/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4S / 56.6E (NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 10.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 11.1S/53.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/29 00 UTC: 11.3S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/29 12 UTC: 12.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/30 00 UTC: 12.6S/52.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/30 12 UTC: 13.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING A RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS MAINLY EXPOSED ; THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE LLCC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALONG ITS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AFTER TAU 24 TO 48. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.