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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/4/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2006/12/28 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4S / 54.6E
(TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/28 18 UTC: 10.8S/53.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2006/12/29 06 UTC: 11.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/29 18 UTC: 11.8S/51.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/30 06 UTC: 12.5S/51.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/30 18 UTC: 13.5S/51.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOME NOW MORE FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WICH MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALONG ITS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THUS INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY AFTER TAU 36 TO 48.