Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/4/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 53.9E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/29 00 UTC: 11.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/29 12 UTC: 11.9S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/30 00 UTC: 12.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/30 12 UTC: 13.6S/51.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/31 00 UTC: 14.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 15.8S/50.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+. CI=2.0. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOME NOW MORE FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING. CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER AND SEEMS MORE PERSISTENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WICH MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALONG ITS TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THUS INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY AFTER TAU 36 TO 48.