Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/4/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4 2.A POSITION 2006/12/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 54.2E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/29 06 UTC: 10.7S/53.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/29 18 UTC: 11.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/30 06 UTC: 12.4S/51.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/12/31 06 UTC: 14.3S/50.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 15.3S/50.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY CONFIRM A POORLY ORGANIZED (ELONGATED) LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ; THE ESTIMATED CENTRE IS RELOCATED. THE CONVECTION IS RATHER INTENSE AND PERSISTANT EAST OF THE LLCC BUT STILL REMAINS FAR FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO ENCOUNTER A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. AT THE CURRENT STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.