Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 57.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/30 00 UTC: 12.5S/57.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/30 12 UTC: 12.9S/57.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/31 00 UTC: 13.3S/56.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 14.0S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 14.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 15.8S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MONITORED AND NUMBERED 4 HAS DISSIPATED. DISPITE A FAVOURABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW , THE VERTICAL FEATURE HAD NEVER PERMIT IT TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF THE SUCCESSIVE FORECATS OF NWP MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EX- TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR4 HAS PERSISTED. DURING THE NIGHT, SEVERAL RELATIVE AND SHORT-LIVED CENTERS HAVE PROBABLY EXIST AT THE MERCY OF CONVECTIVE PULSATIONS, MAINLY EAST OF 55E. LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOW A NEW CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ORGANIZED AROUND A NEW CENTER APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN. EVEN THIS NEW CENTER IS ISSUED FROM THE SAME THUNDERY AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, DISSIPATING OF THE FIRST MONITORED ONE AND THE GENESIS OF THIS NEW ONE JUSTIFY THE RE-NUMBERING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEAKENING WINDSHEAR AND AN EFFICIENT POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.