Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 57.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/30 06 UTC: 12.6S/57.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/30 18 UTC: 12.9S/57.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/12/31 06 UTC: 13.4S/56.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 13.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 14.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 15.4S/55.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOW A NEW CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ORGANIZED AROUND A NEW CENTER APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY, GENERALY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEAKENING WINDSHEAR AND AN EFFICIENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.