Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 57.1E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/30 12 UTC: 12.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/31 00 UTC: 12.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 13.1S/55.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 13.7S/55.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 14.5S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 15.3S/55.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 ORGANISATION REMAINS DIFFICULT, AND CONVECTION FLUCTUATING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEAKENING WINDSHEAR AND AN EFFICIENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S. AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.