Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 56.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1230 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/30 18 UTC: 12.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/31 06 UTC: 12.9S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 13.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 15.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 15.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE; DECREASING WINDSHEAR AND EFFICIENT POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVERTHE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.