Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 56.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1010 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/31 00 UTC: 13.1S/55.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 13.3S/54.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 13.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 14.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/02 12 UTC: 16.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE; DECREASING WINDSHEAR AND EFFICIENT POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVERTHE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.