Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 55.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/31 06 UTC: 13.3S/55.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 13.6S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 14.2S/54.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 15.0S/54.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 15.6S/54.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 16.2S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA CONFIRM A RATHER WIDE AND WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HARDLY CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.