Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 55.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 14.6S/54.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 15.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 15.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/02 12 UTC: 16.5S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/03 00 UTC: 17.3S/53.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT SEEM STABILIZED AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR SEYCHELLES REDUCES THE MONSOON FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.