Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 54.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 14.5S/53.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 16.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 16.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/03 06 UTC: 16.7S/52.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR SEYCHELLES REDUCES THE MONSOON FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS IT HAS LIGHTLY INTENSIFIED LAST NIGHT. WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LAST QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.