Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/5/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 54.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 16.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 17.0S/53.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 17.8S/53.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/02 12 UTC: 18.4S/53.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/01/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.0- THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE AND RESPONSIBLE OF THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS PHASED MORE SOONER THAN FORECASTED BY THE NWP MODELS. SYSTEM UNDERGOES NOW A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SHOWS SINCE THE RENCENT PAST HOURS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6 TENS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN LINKED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.