Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 1800 UTC : 15.8S / 54.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 17.4S/53.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 18.6S/53.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 19.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 20.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/01/03 06 UTC: 20.8S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/01/03 18 UTC: 21.3S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY WITH A BANDING EYE. THE CENTER HAS TRANSITED NORTHWEST OF TROMELIN ISLAND (AT APPROXIMATIVLY 20KM) WHERE IT HAS BEEN RECORDED 54KT (10 MIN AVERAGE MAX WIND) ANG GUSTS OF 70KT JUST BEFORE 17OOZ. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, AND THEN SLOW DOWN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.