Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/01 AT 1200 UTC : 18.0S / 52.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 19.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/02 12 UTC: 20.5S/50.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/03 00 UTC: 21.6S/49.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/03 12 UTC: 22.2S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/04 00 UTC: 22.7S/48.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 23.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=3.5. THE INTENSITY, STATIONARY LAST NIGTH, SEEMS WEAKEN AS THE FEEDING FLOWS, THE NO-DIRECT MOOSON FLOW IN THE NORTH AND THE TRADES FLOWS IN THE SOUTH, ARE WEAKENING. THE DRY AIR EXISTING IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIELS AT MIDDLE LEVEL, AND THEN SLOW DOWN WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.