Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 52.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 19.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/50.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/03 06 UTC: 21.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/03 18 UTC: 22.2S/48.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/48.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/04 18 UTC: 22.8S/47.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5+ INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS STATIONNARY BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE RECENT PAST HOURS. CLOVIS SHOWS NOW AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED THANKS TO THE CURVED RAINY BANDS OVER REUNION ISLAND'S DOPPLER RADAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SLOW DOWN LINKED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS FORECASTED TO MAKE A LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WITHIN 3 DAYS AT WEAKENING MODERATE TROPICAL STROM STAGE.