Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8S / 50.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 21.2S/49.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/03 06 UTC: 22.6S/48.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/03 18 UTC: 24.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/01/04 06 UTC: 25.5S/46.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/01/04 18 UTC: 26.3S/47.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/05 06 UTC: 27.1S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY AND THE SYSTEM PATTERN REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE WEAKENED AND THE UPPER LAYER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE. THE SEVERE TROPICAL SORM "CLOVIS" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.