Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 50.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/03 00 UTC: 21.0S/49.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/03 12 UTC: 22.3S/48.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/04 00 UTC: 23.2S/47.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 24.1S/48.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/05 00 UTC: 25.2S/48.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/05 12 UTC: 26.1S/50.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- ; CI=4.0 THE CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY MAINLY DEPENDS ON THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, RATHER FAVOURABLE UNTIL TAU 48. THE SEVERE TROPICAL SORM "CLOVIS" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL, IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY.