Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/5/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/03 AT 0000 UTC : 20.5S / 48.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/03 12 UTC: 20.7S/48.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/01/04 00 UTC: 21.5S/47.2E OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 22.2S/47.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/01/05 00 UTC: 23.1S/47.0E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/01/05 12 UTC: 24.0S/47.1E OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/01/06 00 UTC: 25.4S/46.8E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- ; CI=4.0 THE CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY AROUND THE CENTRE, CONVECTION ORGANISES INTO CDO PATTERN. THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TRACKED MORE WESTWARDS, DUE TO THE LOW PRESENT WEST TO THE SYSTEME AND THE RIDGE REBIULTING SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE MALAGASY COAST IN THE NEXT HOURS SOUTH TO MAHANORO..