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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS)

2.A POSITION 2007/01/03 AT 0600 UTC :
20.5S / 48.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/03 18 UTC: 21.0S/47.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/01/04 06 UTC: 21.6S/47.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/01/04 18 UTC: 22.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2007/01/05 06 UTC: 23.4S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CLOVIS IS MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MANANJARY.
IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND DIZOGANIZE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.