Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/5/20062007 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 48.4E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/04 00 UTC: 21.2S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 21.5S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2007/01/05 00 UTC: 22.0S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLOVIS SEEMS TO HAVE JUST MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF MANANJARY. THE SIGNALED LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNCLEAR MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY. THE LOCATION IS INDICATED ACCORDING TO VISIBLE NOAA18 AT 1052Z AND VISIBME METEOSAT7 VISIBLE ANIMATION WICH DEPICT TEMPORARILLY A CURVED BAND OF LOWLEVEL CLOUDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION WICH IS RAPIDLY DIZORGANIZING. NEVERTHELESS, THE TENDANCY IS THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WICH IS DIZORGANIZING THE CONVECTION. SO, THE SYSTEM IS FORCASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY, EITHER OVER LAND OR NEAR COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.