Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/5/20062007 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 48.4E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/04 06 UTC: 21.2S/48.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/01/04 18 UTC: 21.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/01/05 06 UTC: 21.8S/48.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2007/01/05 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CLOVIS" CENTER IS NOW QUASI STATIONNARY, LOCATED ON THE MALGASY COASTLINE IN THE VICINITY OF MANANJARY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS SLOWLY, WEAKENING GRADUALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER.