Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/5/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CLOVIS) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 48.8E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/04 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/05 00 UTC: 21.3S/48.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/05 12 UTC: 21.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/06 00 UTC: 21.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CLOVIS" CENTER REMAINS HARD TO LOCATE, BUT IT SEEMS TO BE OVER SEA AGAIN, TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS A TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND "CLOVIS" IS NOT OPTIMUM : THE SYSTEM IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING ; NEVERTHELESS, A SLIGHT AND TEMPORARY REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, "CLOVIS" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AGAIN TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE.