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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

2.A POSITION 2007/01/08 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2S / 42.3E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/08 18 UTC: 23.3S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/01/09 06 UTC: 24.2S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/01/09 18 UTC: 24.0S/44.4E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/01/10 06 UTC: 22.7S/44.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/01/10 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/01/11 06 UTC: 21.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM CENTRE APPAEARS ON MW IMAGERY WINDSAT 08/0247Z, IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THAT REMAINS INORGANIZED. OBS FROM MOROMBE AT 0300 : 1002.3 HpA, 40 KT.
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE WITH PERSISTENT WINDSHEAR, RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS, AND POLEWARD DECREASING TRADE WINDS.