Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/6/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2007/01/08 AT 1200 UTC : 23.0S / 42.9E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/09 00 UTC: 23.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/01/09 12 UTC: 24.1S/44.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/01/10 00 UTC: 23.7S/44.6E DISSIPATING. 48H: 2007/01/10 12 UTC: 23.0S/44.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ON THE LAST IMAGERY, LLCC IS BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE, THANKS TO A TEMPORARY WINDSHEAR DECREASE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS POORLY FAVORABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION. TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WEAKENS THE TRADE WINDS, AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED BUT REMAINS MODERATE. MODELS DO AGREE WITH NOT DEEPENING THE SYSTEM, BUT DISAGREE WITH THE TRACK. ARP AND ECMWF EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH, ALADIN AND UKMO MAINTAIN IT IN THE CHANNEL, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN THE SOUTH OF TOLIARA AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.