Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2007/01/28 AT 0600 UTC : 7.9S / 66.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/28 18 UTC: 08.4S/66.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/01/29 06 UTC: 09.3S/65.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/01/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/64.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/30 18 UTC: 12.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 13.8S/61.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION ORGANZES SLOWLY IN CURVED BUT STILL SCATTERED BANDS PATTERN, AND HAS A BROAD SPATIAL COVERAGE. ENVIRONEMNT IS WEAKLY SHEARED BUT TRADE WINDS SURGE IS WEAK, SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.