Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2007/01/28 AT 1200 UTC : 9.0S / 66.4E (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/29 00 UTC: 10.5S/65.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/01/29 12 UTC: 11.8S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/01/30 00 UTC: 12.8S/64.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/01/30 12 UTC: 13.7S/63.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 14.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 15.5S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTION ORGANZES SLOWLY IN CURVED BUT STILL SCATTERED BANDS PATTERN, AND HAS A BROAD SPATIAL COVERAGE. CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRE SINCE A FEW HOURS. ENVIRONEMNT IS WEAKLY SHEARED BUT TRADE WINDS SURGE IS WEAK, IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NWP DISAGREE. ECMWF AND NOGAPS INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS, ARPEGE INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND UKMO DOES NOT INTENSIFY WITH A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.