Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2007/01/29 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6S / 66.9E (TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/29 12 UTC: 12.0S/66.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/01/30 00 UTC: 13.0S/65.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/30 12 UTC: 13.8S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 14.5S/65.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 15.0S/65.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 15.3S/65.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRE SINCE A FEW HOURS INTO A CDO PATTERN. ENVIRONEMNT IS WEAKLY SHEARED BUT TRADE WINDS SURGE IS WEAK, IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NWP DISAGREE UP TO TAU24. ECMWF AND NOGAPS INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEATWARDS, ARPEGE INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND UKMO DOES NOT INTENSIFY WITH A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.